Tools · Simulator
Betting System Simulator
Describe a strategy with a handful of numbers and replay it thousands of times. The simulation shows what profit to expect, how deep the drawdowns get, and whether a winning record is skill or just variance.
The System your strategy's long-term shape
The Simulation how we test it & what to ask
One possible path through your bets. Re-run to see how wildly the same edge can play out.
How deep the biggest losing streak got, across every simulation. The long right tail is the risk that bites.
Luck vs Skill
Maximum Drawdown
Outcomes & Risk
How the simulation works
Your yield and average odds fix a single hidden number — the hit rate. From there we flip a weighted coin once per bet, thousands of runs deep, and read the spread of outcomes that one edge can produce.
The hidden hit rate (1 + yield) ÷ odds
A yield of 5% at 2.00 odds can only come from winning 52.5% of bets. That hit rate is the coin we flip — every run uses it, but luck decides each individual bet.
Why simulate at all
Averages hide the journey. Two runs with the same final profit can swing through totally different drawdowns. Replaying the run thousands of times turns "what might happen" into real probabilities.
Drawdown is the real risk
The deepest fall from a peak — the maximum drawdown — is what busts bankrolls, not the final number. Its distribution is lopsided: rare runs dig two or three times deeper than average.
Luck or skill? p-value
The p-value asks: if your true edge were zero, how often would pure luck still hand you this yield? Small means skill. Below 5% is suggestive; below 0.1% is convincing.